2017 Paper on “Towards Building a Bus Travel Time Prediction Model for Metro Manila”

5 Dec 2018 11:10 AM


Land Transportation Sector is one of the key sectors in the Philippine economy particularly in Metro Manila. With the rapid urbanization of the Philippines, The urban transport infrastructure is expected to experience pressures posing a major risk of urban transport degradation resulting into longer travel times, economic and productivity losses. In light of this, the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB) along with DOST-ASTI has initiated a project on implementing a bus management system for Public Utility Vehicles utilizing real time GPS location data. This study takes on establishing a travel time prediction for the buses given a specific route. The travel time estimation was performed using Extremely Randomize Trees, a supervised machine learning algorithm. The resulting prediction set had a correlation of determination score indicative of a good predictive performance for travel time prediction.


Felan C. Garcia
Science Research Specialist II

Felan Carlo recently completed his master’s Degree in Electronics Engineering at the Ateneo de Manila University. He holds a bachelor’s degree in Applied Physics from the University of the Philippines – Los Banos.

Today, Felan Carlo works under the Solutions and Services Engineering Division (SSED) as a regular employee for the past four years. Being part of the Flood Sensor Development Installation and Monitoring of Urban Flooding in Metro Manila (Urban Flood) project is what keeps him occupied these past few months.

Alvin E. Retamar
Chief Science Research Specialist

Alvin started his engagement with the DOST-ASTI under the Presidential Summer Youth Work Program (PSYWP) and had been absorbed by the agency and risen in rank through his years of service.

Being the SSED Chief, he leads notable projects of their group such as the Philippine Earth Data Resource Observation Center (PEDRO), and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Automatic Identification System (AIS) for Innovative Terrestrial Monitoring and Maritime Surveillance (NovaSAR-S) among others. He is also part of the Development of Philippine Scientific Earth Observation Microsatellite (PHL-MICROSAT) Program as the leader in Project 2 entitled “Establishment of Ground Receiving Station for the PHL-MICROSAT”.

Published on

 09 February 2017

Presented in

2016 IEEE Region 10 Conference

Published at

IEEE Xplore Digital Library

Link to Publication